NAEP results are out this month: Here’s what you need to know
As we eagerly await the release of the latest National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) results later this month, it’s a pivotal moment to reflect on what these scores mean for both Texas and the nation.
The NAEP results provide a unique opportunity to understand where we stand in math education and identify areas that need focused attention. Let’s delve into some insights about what we might expect from this year’s results and what the numbers could tell us about the state of math education.
A Primer on NAEP
Often referred to as the “Nation’s Report Card,” NAEP has a long history dating back to its first administration in 1969, providing decades of data to track educational progress across the United States. NAEP is the largest nationally representative assessment of what America’s students know and can do in key subject areas, including mathematics and reading. Every two years, NAEP assesses students in grades 4 and 8 across the United States, providing critical data to educators, policymakers and stakeholders. The 2024 results, set to be released on Jan. 29, will be the second set of main results after the pandemic disruptions, and will provide clarity on persisting achievement gaps.
But interpreting NAEP results isn’t as simple as looking at a single number. It’s a technically complex process involving scaled scores, achievement levels and subgroup analysis. NAEP doesn’t report results for individual students or schools; instead, it provides a snapshot of student performance at the national, state and some urban district levels. For Texas, which consistently participates in NAEP, this is an invaluable opportunity to benchmark our progress against the rest of the country.
How do we interpret NAEP Results?
NAEP assessments in reading and mathematics provide a comprehensive picture of student achievement across the nation. They measure skills across key content areas and categorize results into three achievement levels:
- Basic: Partial mastery of prerequisite knowledge and skills.
- Proficient: Solid academic performance and competency over challenging subject matter.
- Advanced: Superior performance.
These assessments don’t just deliver a single score; they reveal trends over time, highlight disparities among student subgroups and offer a national benchmark for educational progress. This makes NAEP results invaluable for evaluating both the strengths and challenges within our education system. As we examine the upcoming 2024 results, we must focus on the broader implications for all students, paying particular attention to how these findings align with post-pandemic recovery efforts.
It is important to remember that the NAEP exams use different achievement measures and test different things than Texas’ state assessment (STAAR). While the STAAR test can measure how students are performing on the state learning standard, the Texas Essential Knowledge and Skills, the NAEP is based on a separate framework that is not tied to any state’s specific standards.
The achievement levels also mean different things. “Meets” grade level on the STAAR exam means something different than “Proficient” or “Basic” on NAEP and can’t be used interchangeably. To help address these differences, the National Assessment Governing Board releases “state mapping” studies that show where each state’s standards fall on the NAEP scales and in relation to the NAEP achievement levels.
For This Score Release, All Eyes are on Math
NAEP math assessments specifically measure skills across five content areas: number properties and operations, measurement, geometry, data analysis and statistics, and algebra. The test items vary in format, including multiple-choice, short constructed-response, and extended constructed-response questions. The test reports results on a 0-500 scale, with students grouped into the same three achievement levels mentioned above.
In recent years, NAEP results have reflected the profound challenges facing education, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2022 main NAEP results and the Long-Term Trend (LTT) results revealed historic declines in math scores, with 9-year-olds showing the largest drop in mathematics performance since the 1970s. Other assessments, both global and Texas-specific, have shown additional declines in math achievement. These trends are expected to be seen in the 2024 main NAEP results, although the extent is yet to be determined.
For Texas, there are several key questions to consider:
- Have Math Scores Stabilized? After the significant declines seen in 2022, we’ll be looking to see whether math scores have begun to stabilize or if they continue to reflect lingering impacts of disrupted learning.
- Gaps in Achievement? Are these gaps narrowing, or has the pandemic widened disparities further? This requires looking past rankings and digging into actual achievement. For example, Texas ranks No. 1 in the nation for 8th grade math achievement among black students; but the reality is that 11% of these students are deemed “Proficient.” Rankings matter to learn strategies from who is doing best, but the primary focus should be on actual achievement.
- Comparative Performance: Texas has historically outperformed many other states in math. Will this trend hold in 2024, or will we see shifts in the national rankings?
Texas currently ranks No. 14 in fourth-grade math and No. 25 in eighth-grade math overall.
Why Math Scores Matter
Mathematics is foundational to many aspects of life and work. It’s a key predictor of college and career readiness, especially in STEM fields that are critical to Texas’ future economic success. Declining math proficiency is a warning sign, not just for our education system but for our workforce pipeline and economic competitiveness.
Moreover, NAEP math scores are often a bellwether for systemic challenges. When scores decline, they prompt necessary conversations about curriculum alignment, teacher preparation and investment in scalable programs. For Texas, these results should fuel data-driven discussions about how to allocate and target resources effectively to support students who need it most.
Preparing for the Results
When the NAEP results are released, it’s important to approach them with both urgency and nuance. Here are some key takeaways for stakeholders:
- Focus on Trends, Not Just Single-Year Results: NAEP is designed to show long-term trends in student performance. While the 2024 results will give us a snapshot, the real value lies in understanding how scores have changed over time.
- Pay Attention to Subgroup Performance: Aggregated results can mask disparities. Breaking down the data by subgroups — such as economically disadvantaged students and racial/ethnic groups — will provide a clearer picture of who is struggling and why.
- Look Beyond State Rankings: While state rankings can be a point of pride or concern, they don’t tell the full story. Digging into the actual achievement levels and understanding what students know give a clearer picture regarding the readiness of students.
- Use Data to Inform Action: Data alone won’t solve the challenges facing our schools. It’s how we respond to these results that matters. Texas 2036 will be closely analyzing the results to identify actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders.
Moving Forward
The upcoming NAEP results are a critical opportunity to take stock of where we are and chart a course for where we need to go. Mathematics proficiency isn’t just about passing a test; it’s about equipping students with the skills they need to succeed in a rapidly changing world.
While we can’t predict exactly what the results will be, we know that they will provide us invaluable insights on student achievement, both in Texas and across the country. The numbers might not tell us everything we want to hear, but they will tell us what we need to know to make informed decisions. And that, ultimately, is what NAEP is all about.