Your go-to guide to Texas jobs

This is a preview of our Texas 2036 newsletter with what you need to know about the Texas jobs market. To receive this weekly look at our work, sign up here.

A closer look at Texas’ job market

It seems like everywhere you look, national headlines tell a grim story about job seekers.

• Fewer employers are hiring, especially in popular sectors like computer science and finance. (NYT, WSJ)
• Entry-level opportunities are especially hard hit. Entry-level postings are down while competition per opening is rising, creating a tougher funnel for the Classes of 2024 and 2025. (WSJ)
• Automation and AI are reshaping early careers. Tasks once handled by new hires are increasingly automated, from office work to logistics. Amazon alone now deploys more than 1 million robots in its operations. (WSJ)
• Skills mismatched to labor market needs are particularly high among young men. Traditionally male blue-collar jobs in manufacturing, transportation, warehousing and mining have been down or flat. (NBC News)

In Texas, however, things look promising

Texas reached new highs in July with 15.21 million working Texans (including the self-employed), 14.33 million nonfarm jobs and a labor force of 15.85 million. The labor force has now grown in 60 of the last 62 months.

Over the past year, Texas added 232,500 jobs, which is 0.6 percentage points faster than the national rate. The Dallas Fed projects another 1.7% growth in 2025, or roughly 244,600 new jobs.

We look at the top jobs in Texas

Many of the jobs being created in Texas are above the state’s median wage of $47,499. Per the Texas Workforce Commission, these top 5 jobs are ranked by the highest projected number of jobs annually to be added for the period 2022 – 2032.

• General and Operations Managers: $129,621 (44,419 openings)
• Software Developers: $133,282 (12,350 openings)
• Registered Nurses: $91,685 (16,904 openings)
• Medical and Health Services Managers: $124,754 (6,080 openings)

Small business supports nearly 5 million jobs

Share of employees working at small businesses by county

Source: U.S. Small Business Administration

Texas has 3.3 million small businesses with 4.9 million employees in 2024, according to the U.S. Small Business Administration. In fact, 99.8% of businesses in Texas are considered small business.

The top 5 small business industries in Texas include:

• Health Care and Social Assistance: 748,292 employees
• Accommodation and Food Services: 671,057 employees
• Construction: 503,806 employees
• Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services: 434,387 employees
• Retail Trade: 386,631 employees

Did you know? Between 1997 and 2021, Texas small business employment grew by 38%, which exceeded the national small business employment growth rate.

But Texas must stay vigilant

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Texas has been bucking economic trends for generations, thanks to our strong work ethic and business-friendly environment. But a healthy economy and a strong labor market are not foregone conclusions.

Texas’ civilian labor force set another record, adding about 238,000 people year-over-year. And this month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas projected Texas will add about 208,300 jobs in 2025, bringing employment to 14.4 million by December.

While growth is expected to continue, the Dallas Fed’s August Texas Employment Forecast does suggest that employment growth may be slowing down.

Here’s what we’re watching

To continue down a path of prosperity, we must keep our eyes on the road and be on the lookout for potential speedbumps. Here’s what we’re watching out for:

Changes in key sectors: Employment in upstream oil and gas contracted, and employment in education and health services fell in July, while unique job postings increased during the same period.

Fluctuations in data: While the statewide unemployment rate has held steady, it increased in each of the major Texas metro areas according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. Houston, in particular, lost over 30,000 jobs in July.

Hot labor markets: New labor market data from ADP Research ranks the Austin-Round Rock area as one of the top locations in the country for the intersection of wages, affordability and hiring.

Why Texas 2036 remains focused on data

At Texas 2036, we focus on the data and trends. We will keep monitoring the direction that Texas is heading. Our goal is to identify opportunities for the state’s leaders to come together to address key challenges to support the growth of our state and improve the lives of all Texans.