Jobs and wages: Projections from now until 2030
The Texas Workforce Commission released new Occupational Projections for Texas over the current decade. These projections draw on data from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program administered by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
So based on these projections, what can Texans expect to see over from now until 2030?
TWC projects an 18.3% increase in Texas employment, more than double the projected growth for the nation — 7.7%.
2020–2030 Employment Growth
|Annual 2021 Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics||25th Pct||Avg||75th Pct|
|*Some wages have been aggregated for combined occupations.|
Despite the relatively large growth in the number of workers, as of 2021, the average wage in Texas remains 7% lower than the U.S. average, about a $4,000 difference.
This lag in wages continues the trends we saw in the past decade. Texas employment grew at a compound annual rate of 2.1%, or 1.9 million, from 2011 to 2019. However, most of this growth concentrated in low wage jobs. In 2011, the aggregate of low wage jobs constituted 48% of total Texas employment — by 2019 the share had gone up to 61%.
Wages are a function of supply and demand in labor markets at the occupational level, with state and regional characteristics heavily weighing on individual earnings. The best way to ensure positive and long lasting effects on individual earnings is by increasing the productivity of labor. Through the skills, knowledge and experience acquired through more education and training, the Texas workforce is able to become more productive as well as resilient to industrial and technological change.
See more behind our employment and wage indicators at aimhiretexas.org.