Crime in Texas – Perceptions, Realities, and Data Challenges

3 years ago

Texas voters generally think crime is increasing in their community. To check that perception, the latest FBI data gives us a rough sketch of the reality on the ground. However, the actual situation for many communities in Texas and for the state as a whole is still hazy given gaps in the data.

PERCEPTION

In January, Texas 2036 conducted a poll of Texas voters to get their sense of important issues including energy, education, health care, justice, and safety. The poll presented voters with the following statement and asked whether or not they agreed: “There has been an increase in crime in your community since last year.”

	Agree	Disagree	Depends/Unsure
TOTAL	47%	36%	17%

Looking through the crosstabs (party, race, education, and sex in particular) there’s a notable consistency – those who agree that local crime is on the rise consistently outnumber those who disagree, and in roughly the same ratio. Interesting deviations are in age, income, and the urban/rural divide. Older Texans are more likely to agree that local crime is increasing, as are Texans that have a household income below $120,000 and rural Texans. Perhaps the most striking were those voters who were in the broad Houston region (57% agree; 26% disagree) and the DFW region (38% agree; 41% disagree).

REALITY

It’s worth asking the question – Did crime actually increase from 2020 to 2021? With the benefit of preliminary FBI data for 2021 released last week, we can get an initial, albeit incomplete answer.

Search below for a major Texas city to see the latest crime numbers, as well as the percent change in the number of crimes between 2020-2021.

City	Year	Violent Crime	Murder	Rape	Robbery	Aggravated Assault	Property Crime	Burglary	Larceny-theft	Motor Vehicle Theft	Arson
Abilene	2020	523	3	123	63	334	2649	435	2014	200	10
Abilene	2021	588	6	116	82	384	2562	449	1905	208	9
Abilene	% Δ	12%	100%	-6%	30%	15%	-3%	3%	-5%	4%	-10%
Amarillo	2020	1678	15	141	241	1281	7385	1407	4915	1063	32
Amarillo	2021	1499	21	146	188	1144	6756	1307	4590	859	47
Amarillo	% Δ	-11%	40%	4%	-22%	-11%	-9%	-7%	-7%	-19%	47%
Arlington	2020	2184	23	275	360	1526	10324	1217	7843	1264	33
Arlington	2021	2236	19	337	259	1621	10199	1238	7631	1330	17
Arlington	% Δ	2%	-17%	23%	-28%	6%	-1%	2%	-3%	5%	-48%
Austin	2020	4730	46	504	1104	3076	36405	4786	27538	4081	134
Austin	2021	4985	86	539	1006	3354	33441	4797	24098	4546	186
Austin	% Δ	5%	87%	7%	-9%	9%	-8%	0%	-12%	11%	39%
Beaumont	2020	1435	23	80	300	1032	3883	959	2561	363	21
Beaumont	2021	1231	18	83	234	896	3800	927	2494	379	26
Beaumont	% Δ	-14%	-22%	4%	-22%	-13%	-2%	-3%	-3%	4%	24%
Brownsville	2020	742	7	83	153	499	3398	404	2872	122	14
Brownsville	2021	723	2	80	132	509	3335	415	2785	135	21
Brownsville	% Δ	-3%	-71%	-4%	-14%	2%	-2%	3%	-3%	11%	50%
College Station	2020	226	2	62	28	134	2319	326	1779	214	3
College Station	2021	220	3	60	32	125	2068	285	1603	180	2
College Station	% Δ	-3%	50%	-3%	14%	-7%	-11%	-13%	-10%	-16%	-33%
Corpus Christi	2020	2788	34	246	479	2029	10797	2053	7858	886	88
Corpus Christi	2021	2777	19	234	469	2055	10261	1720	7531	1010	79
Corpus Christi	% Δ	0%	-44%	-5%	-2%	1%	-5%	-16%	-4%	14%	-10%
Dallas	2020	12157	250	643	3455	7809	47017	9439	27013	10565	185
Dallas	2021	10862	218	560	2360	7724	43808	6866	25185	11757	226
Dallas	% Δ	-11%	-13%	-13%	-32%	-1%	-7%	-27%	-7%	11%	22%
Denton	2020	404	5	132	55	212	3194	358	2470	366	5
Denton	2021	407	4	96	52	255	2986	303	2342	341	8
Denton	% Δ	1%	-20%	-27%	-5%	20%	-7%	-15%	-5%	-7%	60%
Edinburg	2020	325	6	79	36	204	2310	281	1966	63	4
Edinburg	2021	358	3	74	41	240	2282	253	1944	85	5
Edinburg	% Δ	10%	-50%	-6%	14%	18%	-1%	-10%	-1%	35%	25%
El Paso	2020	2198	29	281	290	1598	8762	862	7413	487	16
El Paso	2021	1655	30	307	221	1097	8393	1126	6387	880	37
El Paso	% Δ	-25%	3%	9%	-24%	-31%	-4%	31%	-14%	81%	131%
Fort Worth	2020	5207	110	494	901	3702	25996	3490	18906	3600	143
Fort Worth	2021	5272	119	545	701	3907	24799	3545	17590	3664	115
Fort Worth	% Δ	1%	8%	10%	-22%	6%	-5%	2%	-7%	2%	-20%
Frisco	2020	189	1	43	31	114	2077	243	1729	105	2
Frisco	2021	208	4	60	12	132	1994	169	1704	121	4
Frisco	% Δ	10%	300%	40%	-61%	16%	-4%	-30%	-1%	15%	100%
Garland	2020	700	5	77	284	334	6102	927	4097	1078	8
Garland	2021	605	15	70	205	315	5719	870	3929	920	8
Garland	% Δ	-14%	200%	-9%	-28%	-6%	-6%	-6%	-4%	-15%	0%
Grand Prairie	2020	484	12	52	76	344	3812	352	2850	610	5
Grand Prairie	2021	449	8	51	80	310	3408	331	2602	475	5
Grand Prairie	% Δ	-7%	-33%	-2%	5%	-10%	-11%	-6%	-9%	-22%	0%
Houston	2020	29650	412	1263	8747	19228	98555	15857	67793	14905	530
Houston	2021	28263	462	1143	7748	18910	95179	14664	65070	15445	462
Houston	% Δ	-5%	12%	-10%	-11%	-2%	-3%	-8%	-4%	4%	-13%
Irving	2020	762	9	125	216	412	6192	670	4580	942	11
Irving	2021	802	12	154	186	450	5892	609	4319	964	7
Irving	% Δ	5%	33%	23%	-14%	9%	-5%	-9%	-6%	2%	-36%
Killeen	2020	1034	25	92	157	760	2956	655	1865	436	5
Killeen	2021	966	18	94	97	757	2654	525	1738	391	2
Killeen	% Δ	-7%	-28%	2%	-38%	0%	-10%	-20%	-7%	-10%	-60%
Laredo	2020	864	12	93	155	604	3856	628	3013	215	60
Laredo	2021	806	22	93	96	595	3144	399	2532	213	59
Laredo	% Δ	-7%	83%	0%	-38%	-1%	-18%	-36%	-16%	-1%	-2%
League City	2020	131	1	40	25	65	1497	169	1203	125	0
League City	2021	92	3	21	14	54	1220	142	955	123	0
League City	% Δ	-30%	200%	-48%	-44%	-17%	-19%	-16%	-21%	-2%	0%
Lubbock	2020	2857	29	227	430	2171	10781	2297	7326	1158	102
Lubbock	2021	2840	25	268	389	2158	9725	2149	6495	1081	93
Lubbock	% Δ	-1%	-14%	18%	-10%	-1%	-10%	-6%	-11%	-7%	-9%
McAllen	2020	123	3	43	23	54	2791	139	2603	49	2
McAllen	2021	259	0	44	18	197	2615	106	2469	40	12
McAllen	% Δ	111%	-100%	2%	-22%	265%	-6%	-24%	-5%	-18%	500%
McKinney	2020	285	1	64	44	176	1966	218	1535	213	4
McKinney	2021	274	5	50	22	197	1906	199	1506	201	6
McKinney	% Δ	-4%	400%	-22%	-50%	12%	-3%	-9%	-2%	-6%	50%
Mesquite	2020	628	11	71	149	397	5000	735	3410	855	11
Mesquite	2021	718	10	49	169	490	4729	539	3382	808	11
Mesquite	% Δ	14%	-9%	-31%	13%	23%	-5%	-27%	-1%	-5%	0%
Midland	2020	549	10	81	50	408	3119	404	2249	466	16
Midland	2021	590	11	130	40	409	2239	288	1694	257	5
Midland	% Δ	7%	10%	60%	-20%	0%	-28%	-29%	-25%	-45%	-69%
Odessa	2020	1020	13	107	106	794	3178	587	2124	467	22
Odessa	2021	653	10	62	102	479	2879	512	1992	375	16
Odessa	% Δ	-36%	-23%	-42%	-4%	-40%	-9%	-13%	-6%	-20%	-27%
Pasadena	2020	865	8	80	160	617	3551	422	2507	622	25
Pasadena	2021	938	8	98	157	675	3654	579	2401	674	10
Pasadena	% Δ	8%	0%	23%	-2%	9%	3%	37%	-4%	8%	-60%
Pearland	2020	128	3	30	34	61	1805	181	1502	122	1
Pearland	2021	134	1	21	24	88	1823	183	1499	141	0
Pearland	% Δ	5%	-67%	-30%	-29%	44%	1%	1%	0%	16%	-100%
Plano	2020	455	3	108	115	229	4790	616	3732	442	12
Plano	2021	464	5	117	86	256	4790	567	3748	475	13
Plano	% Δ	2%	67%	8%	-25%	12%	0%	-8%	0%	7%	8%
Richardson	2020	157	6	21	52	78	2426	374	1749	303	4
Richardson	2021	179	5	18	54	102	2470	281	1939	250	10
Richardson	% Δ	14%	-17%	-14%	4%	31%	2%	-25%	11%	-17%	150%
Round Rock	2020	186	3	26	55	102	2286	235	1957	94	3
Round Rock	2021	195	3	29	26	137	2438	183	2108	147	6
Round Rock	% Δ	5%	0%	12%	-53%	34%	7%	-22%	8%	56%	100%
San Angelo	2020	368	7	75	41	245	3053	476	2253	324	16
San Angelo	2021	339	5	56	43	235	2618	476	1921	221	15
San Angelo	% Δ	-8%	-29%	-25%	5%	-4%	-14%	0%	-15%	-32%	-6%
San Antonio	2020	11689	130	1233	2175	8151	57290	7954	42321	7015	237
San Antonio	2021	10620	160	964	1699	7797	59802	7386	43651	8765	271
San Antonio	% Δ	-9%	23%	-22%	-22%	-4%	4%	-7%	3%	25%	14%
Sugar Land	2020	71	4	10	20	37	1280	111	1080	89	0
Sugar Land	2021	79	1	13	26	39	1472	196	1187	89	1
Sugar Land	% Δ	11%	-75%	30%	30%	5%	15%	77%	10%	0%	N/A
Tyler	2020	473	6	55	69	343	3298	524	2571	203	2
Tyler	2021	477	6	57	50	364	2783	343	2218	222	1
Tyler	% Δ	1%	0%	4%	-28%	6%	-16%	-35%	-14%	9%	-50%
Waco	2020	906	14	81	142	669	4861	872	3576	413	25
Waco	2021	1024	15	111	147	751	4818	981	3412	425	9
Waco	% Δ	13%	7%	37%	4%	12%	-1%	13%	-5%	3%	-64%
Wichita Falls	2020	405	9	82	76	238	3262	635	2343	284	1
Wichita Falls	2021	590	7	119	55	409	3227	633	2172	422	2
Wichita Falls	% Δ	46%	-22%	45%	-28%	72%	-1%	0%	-7%	49%	100%

Even this incomplete data is useful. First, when compared to the Crime in Texas Reports compiled by the Texas Department of Public Safety, we can get some historical context for these specific jurisdictions. Second, most Texans live near these medium-to-large population centers, and the data can offer them signs of hope and early warnings about crime trends near their communities. Comparing these statistics against the cross tabs dividing the state by regions can allow us to compare and contrast perceptions against reality.

		Perceptions*				Reality†
	Base n (total = 1001)	Agree that Crime Increased	Disagree that Crime Increased	Depends / Unsure	Net Perception (Agree - Disagree)	Change in Violent Crime	Change in Property Crime
Central Texas	135	49%	36%	7%	13%	4%	-7%
DFW Area	300	38%	41%	9%	-3%	-5%	-5%
Houston Area	248	57%	26%	9%	31%	-4%	-3%
South Texas	192	45%	43%	5%	2%	8%	-1%
East Texas	58	37%	40%	15%	-3%	-10%	-10%
West Texas	68	53%	27%	13%	26%	-4%	-10%
*The voter poll Texas 2036 conducted produced cross tabs according to broad “Combined Media Markets,” which divided the state according to 6 geographic regions. † Figures correspond to the combined data from the following jurisdictions that reported to the FBI according to their geographical region: DFW-Area – Arlington, Dallas, Denton, Fort Worth, Frisco, Garland, Grand Prairie, Irving, McKinney, Mesquite, Plano, and Richardson; Houston-Area – Houston, League City, Pasadena, Pearland, and Sugar Land; East Texas – Beaumont and Tyler; Central Texas – Austin, College Station, Killeen, Round Rock, and Waco; South Texas – Brownsville, Corpus Christi, Edinburg, El Paso, Laredo, McAllen, and San Antonio; West Texas – Abilene, Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland, Odessa, San Angelo, and Wichita Falls.

One observation we can make – in spite of the pessimism expressed by Houston-area voters, the reporting Houston-area jurisdictions actually saw crime go down. Combining figures from those jurisdictions, the Houston Area saw a 4% decrease in violent crime and a 3% decrease in property crime from 2020 to 2021. Granted, our polling data does not get granular enough at the community level to draw to decisive insights – for example, while property crime declined as a whole across these communities, Sugar Land saw a 15% increase. The rates of decline were surprisingly similar to the combined figures from DFW jurisdictions where violent crime and property crime both declined by 5%.

DATA CHALLENGES

This preliminary data – the Quarterly Uniform Crime Report – is derived from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) reports that are voluntarily submitted by individual agencies to the FBI. Ideally, the quarterly report would provide trends by region and aggregate population groups. Instead, the final quarterly report for 2021 was released on March 21 of this year, and with it came the announcement that because too few law enforcement agencies reported, only data from city agencies with populations of 100,000 or greater would be available.

The drop in the rate at which agencies are reporting their information to the FBI is remarkable. This low reporting rate likely has a number of explanations, but it is nearly certain that a recent federal reporting transition that began in 2016 is playing an outsized role. As a result, 2021 was the first year that the FBI stopped accepting reports based on the older “Summary Reporting System” methodology, now relying exclusively on NIBRS reports from local agencies.

The transition to NIBRS in Texas has been a years-long process. The Legislature established a statutory goal in 2015 to have “all local law enforcement agencies” implementing NIBRS-sufficient reporting systems by September 1, 2019. A 2017 report from DPS to the Legislature demonstrates that Texas has made significant strides in adopting NIBRS. At that point in time, 97 agencies were NIBRS-certified, covering only 14.4% of the population. As of January 2022, 1,015 local law enforcement agencies were NIBRS-certified and reporting to DPS. This is still short of the “all local law enforcement agencies” goal in statute – 1,015 agencies represents about 37% of the total 2,716 active law enforcement agencies in Texas.

IMPROVING CRIME DATA COLLECTION

While the current 1,000 NIBRS agencies almost certainly cover a majority of Texans, this legislative interim is an important opportunity for lawmakers to check in again. One of the interim charges announced by the Speaker last month asks lawmakers to consider whether or not a standardized incident reporting requirement would be appropriate for Texas law enforcement. The impediments to reaching the statutory goal, and the consistency with which local agencies in Texas are able to submit NIBRS reports, should be examined as well.