How can we close Texas’ college completion gap?

Texas 2036

11 hours ago

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Closing Texas’ College Completion Gap

In just a few years, more than 60% of Texas jobs will require education beyond high school. But right now, only about a third of students finish a postsecondary credential within six years of high school graduation.

Meeting the state’s 2030 goal of 60% of working-age Texans holding a credential of value will take more than boosting enrollment. It also means looking at the many students who have already done much of the work for a degree but never received one.

Texas 2036 report: Earned but Not Awarded

We asked the question: Are many Texans missing out on credentials they’ve already earned? Then, set out to find answers.

Our new report “Earned but Not Awarded: Unlocking Opportunity for Texas’ Potential Completers” highlights these Texas students as “Potential Completers” and the opportunity they offer for Texas’ talent pipeline.

A closer look at Potential Completers

Potential Completers are students who earn 60 or more credits, which is equivalent to an associate degree, but leave without a credential. From 2012 to 2022, more than 54,000 Texans fell into this category, including nearly 39,000 who completed all their credits at their original four-year university.

What do Potential Completers look like?

Meet Derrick

Derrick started at a community college and later transferred to a university, losing credits in the process. He earned more than 120 credits before stepping away to support his family, yet still left without a credential. A retroactive associate degree would give him the recognition he has already earned.

Meet Jasmine

Jasmine used Pell Grants to attend a four-year university and worked part-time while earning credits toward a biology degree. When her Pell eligibility ran out after six years,she couldn’t afford to keep going and left with more than 90 credits but no credential. Her hard work is clear, but without a credential, her skills don’t get the recognition they deserve.

The demographics

Gender: Men are slightly more likely than women to become Potential Completers (6% compared with 4.6%).
Race and ethnicity: About 7% of Black students become Potential Completers, compared with 5% of Hispanic students, 4.5% of Asian students and 4% of white students.
Financial background: Potential Completers are more likely to receive Pell Grants, about five percentage points higher than their peers. On average, they receive $3,500 more in Pell funding.

Earned but Not Awarded: If these students were awarded a credential, Texas’ annual degree totals would rise, statewide progress would accelerate and individuals would finally receive recognition for the work they have already completed.

Where their studies led – and where they landed

Top 10 majors by average in-major credit hours earned by Potential Completers

Source: Texas 2036’s Earned But Not Awarded report

Potential Completers didn’t stall out early. Many advanced deep into their programs, with fields like transportation, visual and performing arts, and architecture averaging 50 or more in-major credits.

Others built substantial coursework in areas such as business, math, biological sciences and engineering.

Life after college: Wage and employment

Once Potential Completers leave college without a credential, their earnings and employment paths begin to diverge from those of associate degree holders. Early wages for Potential Completers are actually slightly higher, but associate degree earners experience faster wage growth and higher employment over time.

Wage advantage of associate degree holders vs. Potential Completers by major

Source: Texas 2036’s Earned But not Awarded report. Note: Chart illustrates three years after degree completion/becoming potential completer.

The gaps are especially sharp in technical fields:

Engineering technologies: Potential Completers earn about $25,000 less per year.
Mathematics: wage gaps exceed $13,000.

In other fields, like the arts and social sciences, the wage differences are smaller. But across the board, the story is clear: without a credential, even students with strong coursework and skills face limits on the jobs they can access and the wages they can earn.

5 strategies to fully recognize these students

Texas can translate these Potential Completers’ earned progress into meaningful credentials by strengthening the systems that recognize and award credit for completed coursework.

Retroactive credentialing: Allow four-year universities to award associate degrees to former students who earned enough credits before leaving school, ensuring their progress is formally recognized.
Embedded credentials: Build clear milestones into four-year degree pathways so students earn marketable certificates or associate degrees along the way.
Reverse transfer: Texas already offers reverse transfer for community college students who meet associate degree requirements after transferring. Making this process smoother and more consistent across institutions would help more students get the credentials they deserve.
Credit portability: Reduce the credit loss that often occurs during transfer so students do not have to retake courses or lose momentum.
Competency-based education: Let students earn credit based on demonstrated skills, not seat time, especially in high-demand technical fields.

Dive deeper: Get a closer look at these recommended solutions in our report.

We’re dedicated to improving the classroom-to-career pipeline

Texas 2036 set out to study Potential Completers because we believe every step a Texan takes in higher education should move them closer to opportunity.

Too many students make real progress, sometimes 60 credits or more, yet most leave school for circumstances beyond their control without the credential that reflects their skills or opens doors in the workplace.

By bringing their progress into the spotlight, we can strengthen the path from college to career and build a Texas where more learners finish what they started, and get the credit they deserve.